For North Korea, next step is a nuclear test

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea rattled the world on Wednesday by putting a satellite into orbit using the kind of technology that appears to demonstrate it can develop a missile capable of hitting the United States.

Its next step will likely be a nuclear test, which would be the third conducted by the reclusive and unpredictable state. Its 2009 test came on May 25, a month after a rocket launch.

For the North and its absolute ruler Kim Jong-un, the costs of the rocket program and its allied nuclear weapons efforts - estimated by South Korea's government at $2.8-$3.2 billion since 1998 - and the risk of additional U.N. or unilateral sanctions are simply not part of the calculation.

"North Korea will insist any sanctions are unjust, and if sanctions get toughened, the likelihood of North Korea carrying out a nuclear test is high," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses.

The United Nations Security Council is to discuss how to respond to the launch, which it says is a breach of sanctions imposed in 2006 and 2009 that banned the isolated and impoverished state from missile and nuclear developments in the wake of its two nuclear weapons tests.

The only surprise is that the Security Council appears to believe it can dissuade Pyongyang, now on its third hereditary ruler since its foundation in 1948, from further nuclear or rocket tests.
Even China, the North's only major diplomatic backer, has limited clout on a state whose policy of self reliance is backed up by an ideology that states: "No matter how precious peace is, we will never beg for peace. Peace lies at the end of the barrel of our gun".
As recently as August, North Korea showed it was well aware of how a second rocket launch this year, after a failed attempt in April, would be received in Washington.
"It is true that both satellite carrier rocket and (a) missile with warhead use similar technology," its Foreign Ministry said in an eight-page statement carried by state news agency KCNA on August 31.
"The U.S. saw our satellite carrier rocket as a long-range missile that would one day reach the U.S. because it regards the DPRK (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) as an enemy."
CASH IN EXCHANGED FOR COLDER WAR
The end-game for the North is a formal peace treaty with Washington, diplomatic recognition and bundles of cash to help bolster its moribund economy.
"They might hope that the U.S. will finally face the unpleasant reality and will start negotiations aimed at slowing down or freezing, but not reversing, their nuclear and missile programs," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.
"If such a deal is possible, mere cognition is not enough. The U.S. will have to pay, will have to provide generous 'aid' as a reward for North Koreans' willingness to slow down or stop for a while."

Recent commercially available satellite imagery shows that North Korea has rebuilt an old road leading to its nuclear test site in the mountainous in the northeast of the country. It has also shoveled away snow and dirt from one of the entrances to the test tunnel as recently as November.

At the same time as developing its nuclear weapons test site, the North has pushed ahead with what it says is a civil nuclear program.

At the end of November, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the construction of a light water reactor was moving ahead and that North Korea had largely completed work on the exterior of the main buildings.

North Korea says it needs nuclear power to provide electricity, but has also boasted of its nuclear deterrence capability and has traded nuclear technology with Syria, Libya and probably Pakistan, according to U.S. intelligence reports.

It terms its nuclear weapons program a "treasured sword".

The missile and the nuclear tests both serve as a "shop window" for Pyongyang's technology and Kookmin's Lankov adds that the attractions for other states could rise if North Korea carries out a test using highly enriched uranium (HEU).
In its two nuclear tests so far, the North has used plutonium of which it has limited stocks which fall further with each test. However it sits on vast reserves of uranium minerals, which could give it a second path to a nuclear weapon.

"An HEU-based device will have a great political impact, since it will demonstrate that North Korean engineers know how to enrich uranium, and this knowledge is in high demand among aspiring nuclear states," Lankov said.

Official: Syria fires Scud missiles at rebels

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Syrian government forces have fired Scud missiles at insurgents in recent days, escalating the 2-year-old conflict against rebels seeking to overthrow the regime, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, two officials said forces of President Bashar Assad have fired the missiles from the Damascus area into northern Syria. These officials asked not to be named because they weren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

News of the missiles came on the same day that more than 100 countries, including the United States, recognized a new Syrian opposition coalition. That has further isolated Assad's regime and opened a way for greater humanitarian assistance to the forces battling to oust him.

One official said there was no indication that chemical weapons were aboard the missiles. Officials have said over the past week that they feared rebel advances were prompting Assad to consider using chemical weapons.

This official estimated that the number of Scuds fired was more than a half dozen, confirming details first reported by The New York Times.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Assad has fired missiles, but wouldn't specify what kind.
"As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons moving forward and we have in recent days seen missiles deployed," she said.

White House press secretary Jay Carney, speaking to reporters, said he could not confirm the report, but said if true it would be a sign of desperation.

"The idea that the Syrian regime would launch missiles, within its borders, at its own people, is stunning, desperate and a completely disproportionate military escalation," Carney said.

In Brussels, a NATO official confirmed that the alliance's intelligence indicates the missiles were Scud-type missiles.

"Allied intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets have detected the launch of a number of unguided, short-range ballistic missiles inside Syria this week," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters. "We do not know the details of the missiles but trajectory and distance travelled indicate they were Scud-type missiles."

"The missiles were fired from inside Syria and they impacted inside Syria. No missiles hit Turkish territory. We have no information about possible casualties or damage," added the official.

The new development happened as officials planned an international conference to further assist opposition to Assad.

"This is the usual pattern of behavior that whenever there is an important decision that is anti-Assad taken by the international community, the Assad regime escalates the degree of violence to show its degree of displeasure," said Murhaf Jouejati, a specialist on Syrian affairs at the National Defense University. "Like saying, 'Oh, yeah? I'll show you!' "

Police search Calif. campus for robbery suspects

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Students at Cal State Fullerton who barricaded themselves inside classrooms and dorm rooms Wednesday afternoon prepared to stay put into the night as police searched for two suspects in a jewelry store robbery, while another suspect was caught after a high-speed pursuit that spanned three counties and ended on a baseball field where Los Angeles' police chief was giving away toys.

The search was centered on three buildings along Nutwood Avenue on the southeast edge of the campus, said Chris Bugbee, the school's director of public relations. Students were alerted via text message at about 4 p.m. and told to stay where they were with doors locked.

Police believe at least one suspect fled into Mihaylo Hall at the university's College of Business, where some occupants were evacuated.

"We saw all these cops coming through with — I think they were like AKs or something. They were pretty big guns. And they eventually told us we had to leave the campus," student Nate Chu told KABC-TV.

SWAT officers were clearing Mihaylo Hall room by room, which was expected to take several hours.
At least one person fired a handgun while attempting to rob the combination pawn shop and jewelry store in Moreno Valley just after 3 p.m., according to Riverside County sheriff's Cpl. Angel Ramos. One person was shot, and the victim's condition was unknown.

Five suspects fled the robbery in a gray Lexus and were stopped by police in Fullerton when the Lexus rear-ended a vehicle near the school. Two people were detained soon after the crash. Three others ran off.

"They ran right at me, I decided to get out of their way, I did not know if they were armed or not," said student Shaun Kintaudi, who was on his way to take a test. "I decided it was best to run away from them and let the cops do their job."

The suspects were considered armed and dangerous, said Fullerton police spokesman Jeff Stuart.

All students were safe, school officials said. Some students posted photos to Twitter and Facebook of their locked-down classrooms and dorm rooms with doors barricaded as they waited inside, watching the news on their laptops.
"We've made a makeshift bathroom out of trash cans, and whatever happens here stays here, that's the rule," Robert Pachorek, a student holed up in a classroom in Langsdorf Hall, told KABC-TV.
Two student news anchors stuck in their campus television studio were posting video reports at the school newspaper's website as they got updates via text messages.
They said they had been rehearsing for just such an event.
"About a week ago we were doing live shots, and now we are actually doing live shots with a tragic situation," journalism major Cara Seo said in a video.

All evening classes and activities were canceled Wednesday. The campus is in its final week of classes before final exams.

One of the suspects who fled after the crash near campus carjacked a silver sedan and drove onto westbound state Route 91, speeding erratically through rush hour traffic until exiting onto surface streets nearly 30 miles away in Los Angeles County. The victim of the carjacking was not hurt, Stuart said.

The suspect crashed the car, sprinted through a lawn and hopped a fence near a housing project in Watts. He surrendered to dozens of officers on a baseball diamond at a recreation center where Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck was giving away toys to hundreds of young children.

"He picked the wrong rec center to run into today," said LAPD Cmdr. Andy Smith.